One-year mortality in COVID-19 is associated with patients' comorbidities rather than pneumonia severity.

BACKGROUND: In patients with pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome who survived hospitalization, one-year mortality can affect up to one third of discharged patients. Therefore, significant long-term mortality after COVID-19 respiratory failure could be expected. The primary outcome of the present study was one-year all-cause mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Observational study of COVID-19 patients hospitalized at Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital (Bergamo, Italy), during the first pandemic wave. RESULTS: A total of 1326 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized. Overall one-year mortality was 33.6% (N 446/1326), with the majority of deaths occurring during hospitalization (N=412, 92.4%). Thirty-four patients amongst the 914 discharged (3.7%) subsequentely died within one year. A third of these patients died for advanced cancer, while death without a cause other than COVID-19 was uncommon (8.8% of the overall post-discharge mortality). In-hospital late mortality (i.e. after 28 days of admission) interested a population with a lower age, and fewer comorbidities, more frequentely admitted in ICU. Independent predictors of post-discharge mortality were age over 65 years (HR 3.19; 95% CI 1.28-7.96, p-value=0.013), presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (HR 2.52; 95% CI 1.09-5.83, p-value=0.031) or proxy of cardiovascular disease (HR 4.93; 95% CI 1.45-16.75, p-value=0.010), and presence of active cancer (HR 3.64; 95% CI 1.50-8.84, p-value=0.004), but not pneumonia severity. CONCLUSIONS: One-year post-discharge mortality depends on underlying patients' comorbidities rather than COVID-19 pneumonia severity per se. Awareness among physicians of predictors of post-discharge mortality might be helpful in structuring a follow-up program for discharged patients.

Frequency, characteristics, and outcome of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia and "silent hypoxemia" at admission: a severity-matched analysis.

BACKGROUND: An aspect of COVID-19 baffling physicians is the presentation of patients with acute respiratory failure, but normal mental faculties and no perception of dyspnea (i.e. "silent hypoxemia"). The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency, characteristics, and outcome of COVID-19 patients with silent hypoxemic status and comparing them with a symptomatic severity-matched group. METHODS: This is a retrospective monocentric observational study involving all patients with PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, admitted at Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, Bergamo (Italy) from Emergency Department due to acute respiratory failure, during the first Italian pandemic peak (February-April 2020). RESULTS: Overall 28-day mortality in 1,316 patients was 26.9%. Patients who did not report dyspnea at admission (N 469, 35.6%) had a lower 28-day mortality (22.6 vs. 29.3%, p=0.009). The severity matching analysis (i.e. PaO2/FiO2 and imaging) led to the identification of two groups of 254 patients that did not differ for sex prevalence, age, BMI, smoking history, comorbidities, and PaCO2 at admission. The use of CPAP during the first 24 hours, such as the need of endotracheal intubation (ETI) during the overall admission were significantly lower in matched patients with silent hypoxemia, whereas 28-day mortality resulted similar (p=0.21). CONCLUSIONS: Lack of dyspnea is common in patients suffering from severe COVID-19 pneumonia leading to respiratory failure, since up to a third of them could be asymptomatic on admission. Dyspnea per se correlates with pneumonia severity, and prognosis. However, dyspnea loses its predictive relevance once other findings to evaluate pneumonia severity are available such as PaO2/FiO2 and imaging. Silent hypoxemic patients are less likely to receive CPAP during the first 24 hours and ETI during the hospitalization, in spite of a comparable mortality to the dyspneic ones.

Characterization of compliance phenotypes in COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (COVID-19 ARDS) seems to differ from the "classic ARDS", showing initial significant hypoxemia in the face of relatively preserved compliance and evolving later in a scenario of poorly compliant lungs. We tested the hypothesis that in patients with COVID-19 ARDS, the initial value of static compliance of respiratory system (Crs) (1) depends on the previous duration of the disease (i.e., the fewer days of illness, the higher the Crs and vice versa) and (2) identifies different lung patterns of time evolution and response to prone positioning. METHODS: This was a single-center prospective observational study. We enrolled consecutive mechanically ventilated patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who met ARDS criteria, admitted to intensive care unit (ICU). Patients were divided in four groups based on quartiles of initial Crs. Relationship between Crs and the previous duration of the disease was evaluated. Respiratory parameters collected once a day and during prone positioning were compared between groups. RESULTS: We evaluated 110 mechanically ventilated patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who met ARDS criteria admitted to our ICUs. Patients were divided in groups based on quartiles of initial Crs. The median initial Crs was 41 (32-47) ml/cmH2O. No association was found between the previous duration of the disease and the initial Crs. The Crs did not change significantly over time within each quartile. Positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) and driving pressure were respectively lower and greater in patients with lower Crs. Prone positioning significantly improved PaO2/FiO2 in the 4 groups, however it increased the Crs significantly only in patients in lower quartile of Crs. CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, the initial Crs is not dependent on the previous duration of COVID-19 disease. Prone positioning improves oxygenation irrespective to initial Crs, but it ameliorates respiratory mechanics only in patients with lower Crs.

Noninvasive respiratory support outside the intensive care unit for acute respiratory failure related to coronavirus-19 disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive respiratory support (NIRS) has been diffusely employed outside the intensive care unit (ICU) to face the high request of ventilatory support due to the massive influx of patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) caused by coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19). We sought to summarize the evidence on clinically relevant outcomes in COVID-19 patients supported by NIV outside the ICU. METHODS: We searched PUBMED®, EMBASE®, and the Cochrane Controlled Clinical trials register, along with medRxiv and bioRxiv repositories for pre-prints, for observational studies and randomized controlled trials, from inception to the end of February 2021. Two authors independently selected the investigations according to the following criteria: (1) observational study or randomized clinical trials enrolling ≥ 50 hospitalized patients undergoing NIRS outside the ICU, (2) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, and (3) at least the intra-hospital mortality reported. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analysis guidelines were followed. Data extraction was independently performed by two authors to assess: investigation features, demographics and clinical characteristics, treatments employed, NIRS regulations, and clinical outcomes. Methodological index for nonrandomized studies tool was applied to determine the quality of the enrolled studies. The primary outcome was to assess the overall intra-hospital mortality of patients under NIRS outside the ICU. The secondary outcomes included the proportions intra-hospital mortalities of patients who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation following NIRS failure and of those with 'do-not-intubate' (DNI) orders. RESULTS: Seventeen investigations (14 peer-reviewed and 3 pre-prints) were included with a low risk of bias and a high heterogeneity, for a total of 3377 patients. The overall intra-hospital mortality of patients receiving NIRS outside the ICU was 36% [30-41%]. 26% [21-30%] of the patients failed NIRS and required intubation, with an intra-hospital mortality rising to 45% [36-54%]. 23% [15-32%] of the patients received DNI orders with an intra-hospital mortality of 72% [65-78%]. Oxygenation on admission was the main source of between-study heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: During COVID-19 outbreak, delivering NIRS outside the ICU revealed as a feasible strategy to cope with the massive demand of ventilatory assistance. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ , CRD42020224788, December 11, 2020.

Usefulness of CURB-65, pneumonia severity index and MuLBSTA in predicting COVID-19 mortality.

The aim of our study is to evaluate the accuracy of CURB-65 and Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), the most widely used scores for community acquired pneumonia, and MuLBSTA, a viral pneumonia score, in predicting 28-day mortality in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia.We retrospectively collected clinical data of consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia admitted at Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital from February 23rd to March 14th, 2020. We calculated at Emergency Department (ED) presentation CURB-65, PSI and MuLBSTA and we compared their performances in discriminating between survivors and non-survivors at 28 days. Among 431 hospitalized patients, the majority presented with hypoxic respiratory failure: median (interquartile range, IQR) PaO2/FiO2 ratio at admission was 228.6 (142.0-278.1). In the first 24 hours, 111 (27%) patients were administered low-flow oxygen cannula, 50 (12%) Venturi Mask, 95 (23%) non-rebreather mask, 106 (26%) non-invasive ventilation, 12 (3%) mechanical ventilation and 41 (9%) were not administered oxygen therapy. Mortality rate at 28-day was 35% (150/431). Between survivors and non-survivors, median (IQR) scores were, respectively, 1.0 (1.0-2.0) and 2.0 (2.0-3.0) for CURB-65 (p<0.001); 90.5 (76.0-105.5) and 115.0 (100.0-129.0) for PSI (p<0.001); 7.0 (5.0-10.0) and 11.0 (9.0-13.0) for MuLBSTA (p<0.001). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for each score were, respectively, 0.725 (0.662-0.787), 0.776 (0.693-0.859) and 0.743 (0.680-0.806) (p>0,05). PSI and MuLBSTA did not show a better performance when compared to CURB-65. Although CURB-65, PSI and MuLBSTA scores are useful tools to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors in COVID-19 pneumonia, their diagnostic accuracy in discriminating 28-day mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia is moderate, as confirmed by AUCs <0.80, and there is a potential underestimation of disease severity in the low-risk classes. For this reason, they should not be recommended in ED to decide between inpatient and outpatient management in patients affected by COVID-19 pneumonia.

SIMEU position paper on non-invasive respiratory support in COVID-19 pneumonia.

The rapid worldwide spread of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis has put health systems under pressure to a level never experienced before, putting intensive care units in a position to fail to meet an exponentially growing demand. The main clinical feature of the disease is a progressive arterial hypoxemia which rapidly leads to ARDS which makes the use of intensive care and mechanical ventilation almost inevitable. The difficulty of health systems to guarantee a corresponding supply of resources in intensive care, together with the uncertain results reported in the literature with respect to patients who undergo early conventional ventilation, make the search for alternative methods of oxygenation and ventilation and potentially preventive of the need for tracheal intubation, such as non-invasive respiratory support techniques particularly valuable. In this context, the Emergency Department, located between the area outside the hospital and hospital ward and ICU, assumes the role of a crucial junction, due to the possibility of applying these techniques at a sufficiently early stage and being able to rapidly evaluate their effectiveness. This position paper describes the indications for the use of non-invasive respiratory support techniques in respiratory failure secondary to COVID-19-related pneumonia, formulated by the Non-invasive Ventilation Faculty of the Italian Society of Emergency Medicine (SIMEU) on the base of what is available in the literature and on the authors' direct experience. Rationale, literature, tips & tricks, resources, risks and expected results, and patient interaction will be discussed for each one of the escalating non-invasive respiratory techniques: standard oxygen, HFNCO, CPAP, NIPPV, and awake self-repositioning. The final chapter describes our suggested approach to the failing patient.

Covid-19 and gender: lower rate but same mortality of severe disease in women-an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Gender-related factors might affect vulnerability to Covid-19. The aim of this study was to describe the role of gender on clinical features and 28-day mortality in Covid-19 patients. METHODS: Observational study of Covid-19 patients hospitalized in Bergamo, Italy, during the first three weeks of the outbreak. Medical records, clinical, radiological and laboratory findings upon admission and treatment have been collected. Primary outcome was 28-day mortality since hospitalization. RESULTS: 431 consecutive adult patients were admitted. Female patients were 119 (27.6%) with a mean age of 67.0 ± 14.5 years (vs 67.8 ± 12.5 for males, p = 0.54). Previous history of myocardial infarction, vasculopathy and former smoking habits were more common for males. At the time of admission PaO2/FiO2 was similar between men and women (228 [IQR, 134-273] vs 238 mmHg [150-281], p = 0.28). Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) assistance was needed in the first 24 h more frequently in male patients (25.7% vs 13.0%; p = 0.006). Overall 28-day mortality was 26.1% in women and 38.1% in men (p = 0.018). Gender did not result an independent predictor of death once the parameters related to disease severity at presentation were included in the multivariable analysis (p = 0.898). Accordingly, the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis in female and male patients requiring CPAP or non-invasive ventilation in the first 24 h did not find a significant difference (p = 0.687). CONCLUSION: Hospitalized women are less likely to die from Covid-19; however, once severe disease occurs, the risk of dying is similar to men. Further studies are needed to better investigate the role of gender in clinical course and outcome of Covid-19.

Bergamo and Covid-19: How the Dark Can Turn to Light.

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, continues to spread rapidly. Here we discuss the dramatic situation created by COVID-19 in Italy, particularly in the province of Bergamo (the most severely affected in the first wave), as an example of how, in the face of an unprecedented tragedy, acting (albeit belatedly)-including imposing a very strict lockdown-can largely resolve the situation within approximately 2 months. The measures taken here ensured that Bergamo hospital, which was confronted with rapidly rising numbers of severely ill COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization, was able to meet the initial challenges of the pandemic. We also report that local organization and, more important, the large natural immunity against SARS-CoV-2 of the Bergamo population developed during the first wave of the epidemic, can explain the limited number of new COVID-19 cases during the more recent second wave compared to the numbers in other areas of Lombardy. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of coordinating the easing of containment measures to avoid what is currently observed in other countries, especially in the United States, Latin American and India, where this approach has not been adopted, and a dramatic resurgence of COVID-19 cases and an increase in the number of hospitalisations and deaths have been reported.

At the peak of COVID-19 age and disease severity but not comorbidities are predictors of mortality: COVID-19 burden in Bergamo, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Findings from February 2020, indicate that the clinical spectrum of COVID-19 can be heterogeneous, probably due to the infectious dose and viral load of SARS-CoV-2 within the first weeks of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of overall 28-day mortality at the peak of the Italian outbreak. METHODS: Retrospective observational study of all COVID-19 patients admitted to the main hospital of Bergamo, from February 23 to March 14, 2020. RESULTS: Five hundred and eight patients were hospitalized, predominantly male (72.4%), mean age of 66±15 years; 49.2% were older than 70 years. Most of patients presented with severe respiratory failure (median value [IQR] of PaO2/FiO2: 233 [149-281]). Mortality rate at 28 days resulted of 33.7% (N.=171). Thirty-nine percent of patients were treated with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), 9.5% with noninvasive ventilation (NIV) and 13.6% with endotracheal intubation. 9.5% were admitted to Semi-Intensive Respiratory Care Unit, and 18.9% to Intensive Care Unit. Risk factors independently associated with 28-day mortality were advanced age (≥78 years: odds ratio [OR], 95% confidence interval [CI]: 38.91 [10.67-141.93], P<0.001; 70-77 years: 17.30 [5.40-55.38], P<0.001; 60-69 years: 3.20 [1.00-10.20], P=0.049), PaO2/FiO2<200 at presentation (3.50 [1.70-7.20], P=0.001), need for CPAP/NIV in the first 24 hours (8.38 [3.63-19.35], P<0.001), and blood urea value at admission (1.01 [1.00-1.02], P=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: At the peak of the outbreak, with a probable high infectious dose and viral load, older age, the severity of respiratory failure and renal impairment at presentation, but not comorbidities, are predictors of 28-day mortality in COVID-19.

Chest X-ray for predicting mortality and the need for ventilatory support in COVID-19 patients presenting to the emergency department.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the inter-rater agreement of chest X-ray (CXR) findings in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to determine the value of initial CXR along with demographic, clinical, and laboratory data at emergency department (ED) presentation for predicting mortality and the need for ventilatory support. METHODS: A total of 340 COVID-19 patients who underwent CXR in the ED setting (March 1-13, 2020) were retrospectively included. Two reviewers independently assessed CXR abnormalities, including ground-glass opacities (GGOs) and consolidation. Two scoring systems (Brixia score and percentage of lung involvement) were applied. Inter-rater agreement was assessed by weighted Cohen's kappa (κ) or intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Predictors of death and respiratory support were identified by logistic or Poisson regression. RESULTS: GGO admixed with consolidation (n = 235, 69%) was the most common CXR finding. The inter-rater agreement was almost perfect for type of parenchymal opacity (κ = 0.90), Brixia score (ICC = 0.91), and percentage of lung involvement (ICC = 0.95). The Brixia score (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.34; p = 0.003), age (OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.22; p < 0.001), PaO2/FiO2 ratio (OR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.98, 1; p = 0.002), and cardiovascular diseases (OR: 3.21; 95% CI: 1.28, 8.39; p = 0.014) predicted death. Percentage of lung involvement (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.03; p = 0.001) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio (OR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.00; p < 0.001) were significant predictors of the need for ventilatory support. CONCLUSIONS: CXR is a reproducible tool for assessing COVID-19 and integrates with patient history, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and SpO2 values to early predict mortality and the need for ventilatory support. KEY POINTS: • Chest X-ray is a reproducible tool for assessing COVID-19 pneumonia. • The Brixia score and percentage of lung involvement on chest X-ray integrate with patient history, PaO2/FIO2 ratio, and SpO2 values to early predict mortality and the need for ventilatory support in COVID-19 patients presenting to the emergency department.

Severity of respiratory failure and outcome of patients needing a ventilatory support in the Emergency Department during Italian novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 outbreak: Preliminary data on the role of Helmet CPAP and Non-Invasive Positive Pressure Ventilation.

BACKGROUND: Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is spreading around the world. At the end of February, the outburst of the pandemic has hit hard on northern Italian's hospitals. As of today, no data have been published regarding the severity of respiratory failure of patients presenting to the Emergency Departments. Moreover, the outcome the patients forced to undergo Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) or Non-Invasive Positive Pressure Ventilation (NIPPV) due to lack of Intensive Care resources is unknown. "Papa Giovanni XXIII" hospital (HPG23) of Bergamo is one of the largest hospitals in the Country, with an Emergency Department (ED) managing over 100,000 patients per year. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study based on chart review of patients presenting to the Emergency Department of HPG23 from 29/02/2020 to 10/03/2020 with a clinical condition highly suspicious for COVID-19 infection. Registration of admission rates, severity of respiratory failure (ARDS classification), need of respiratory support, SARS-CoV-2 PCR test and outcome of patients treated with a ventilatory support were registered on 10th of May 2020. FINDINGS: From 29/02 to 10/03 611 patients with a suspected diagnosis of COVID-19 infection were evaluated in our ED; 320 (52%) met the criteria for hospital admission and 99 (31%) needed to be immediately started on ventilatory support (81% CPAP, 7% NIPPV, 12% Invasive Mechanical Ventilation). Eighty-five (86%) of the 99 patients needing a ventilatory support eventually had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by PCR test on nasal-pharyngeal swab. Their median PO2/FiO2 ratio was 128 (IQR 85-168), with 23 patients (29.5%) classified as severe ARDS. Mortality rate as of 10th of May was 76.5%, ranging from 44.4% within patients <60 years old to 85% within those older than 60 years (p = 0.001). NIPPV/CPAP failure occurred in 91.5% of patients. INTERPRETATION: The population of patients suspected for COVID-19 infection presenting at our ED showed a very high rate of severe respiratory failure, with urgent need of a large amount of intensive care resources. Mortality rates of critically ill patients with confirmed COVID-19 (76.5%) are similar to previously reported studies with similar population. CPAP/NIPPV could be a valid strategy to treat severely hypoxic patients that cannot be intubated in the ED due to lack of intensive care resources. FUNDING: No funds were received for this research project.